According to the Cook Political Report, 80% of Congressional districts in 2021 were “Solid” seats for one party – meaning the other party has no viable way to win. Right now, the vast majority of Congressional districts are designed to largely favor one party or another. But few are familiar with the scale of its impact on what candidates make it to Congress. We’re all familiar with the term gerrymandering. Party appointments, exclusive party-run conventions, or races with one candidate were deemed uncontested The Number of Primary Candidates Has Risen Every Cycle Since 2009 *We considered any primary open to the public, run by the state, with two or more candidates as contested. Just another reason why understanding the origin story of these new legislators is so important. That means 75% of the current Congress are products of contested primaries. Of the 485 members, 320 are still there today. By far, the average Congressional candidate’s experience is running against their fellow party members in a primary and losing. Over this period, 81% of all candidates (n=2,143) would never see the general, losing in the primary. In fact, most people never see the general election. The days of a candidate just walking straight into their party’s nomination for the general election are largely over. To put it another way, you only had a 12% (n=58) chance of running uncontested for your party’s nomination. Of the 485 people who made it to Congress, nearly all of them, 88% (n=427) faced a true primary challenge*. 12, 2021, 485 non-incumbents won a seat in the U.S. The first question to ask is, “how common are primaries in the first place?” The short answer: very.įrom 2009 through Jan.
These elections are a great place to look, as they have the same format across states and are often the only election that matters in deep red or blue districts. Representatives share a common origin – a victory in a primary election. The Realities of Running for Congress in the ‘10s and ‘20s The truth is that more candidates leads to vote-splitting, and that is the best way for extreme candidates to win.Īnd it’s getting worse, but there is hope. If we’re wrong and the parties are trying to keep the field small, they are doing a bad job.Īs the process gets more decentralized and democratic, Congressional primaries are getting more crowded. In this period, races with seven or more candidates occurred over 150 times. The average number of candidates in key primaries – both Republican and Democratic – has risen every year since 2010. 6 candidates), with winners getting as little as 45%, 40% even 35%. Nearly all of them emerged from large, contentious, primaries (on avg.
They had a few things in common that help explain their origins, and give further evidence that no one is minding the store. To do this we looked at every member of Congress elected since 2010. Are there metrics that help us understand the anecdotal rise in uncompromising candidates, and what incentives from the primary system impact the policy decisions of all representatives? With Congress increasingly unable to pass popular legislation and the partisan temperature at an all-time high, we wanted to see what these primary elections are like empirically. This dynamic has turned Congressional primary elections, the only true contest for these safe seats, into crowded, chaotic, free-for-alls where fringe candidates can thrive. While many flippable seats are overseen by the national parties, the safe seats (roughly 80% of all seats) go ignored, with no real candidate recruitment or field-clearing.įor most of the country, no one is guarding who does, or doesn’t, make it to the House of Representatives. The traditional institutions who (for better or worse) used to do this gatekeeping, state parties and the media, have neglected this duty in order to focus on only the most competitive, nationally important elections. Unfortunately, the truth is very different. At a minimum, there has to be someone, somewhere in the process who’s job it is to keep the most extremist, dangerous and power-hungry candidates from running in the first place. If asked how Congressional candidates get on the ballot, most Americans would probably describe a party-run, tightly controlled, and highly selective process designed to find the parties’ best candidates. These are the words many associate with becoming a major party nominee for U.S. “Exclusive, Opaque, and Smoke-Filled Backrooms”
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